How it Works

This page isn’t a usage guide — you’ll find quick-start instructions directly in the tool. Instead, it explains the logic behind DraftStacker’s tiers (Elite, Good, Mid, and Poor) and default stack targets — the teams that auto-highlight when you select a draft slot.

These recommendations are based on Underdog ADP, player projections, and simulations of what each slot can realistically access throughout the draft. If you’re curious how these team suggestions are calculated — or want confidence in the logic behind them — you’re in the right place.

Model Overview

Applies reach/fall ranges for each round to simulate pick flexibility
Scores every team’s best 5-player stack by projected points
Evaluates which players any draft slot can realistically access
Calculates high-efficiency team stacks for each slot

1. ADP & Projection Inputs

ADP and fantasy point projections from Underdog are updated twice weekly (Tuesdays & Fridays). These feed into player rankings, stack scoring, and slot access logic.

2. Stack Evaluation: 5-Player Model

DraftStacker scores every NFL team based on the projected fantasy output of its best possible 5-player combination. This total determines the team’s overall stack tier:

Tier	Projected Points
ELITE	1,000+
GOOD	950–999
MID	900–949
POOR	<900

For each team, the model calculates two scores:

Best Possible Stack: The top 5 projected scorers on the team, regardless of draft slot.
Slot Stack: The top 5 projected scorers realistically available to your draft slot.

Access is determined using round-based reach/fall ranges and clustering logic — explained below.

Efficiency = Slot Stack ÷ Best Stack

Currently, the model supports only 5-player stacks. A future update will allow toggling between 3-, 4-, or 5-player stacks — each with its own tier thresholds and access logic.

3. Modeling Player Access

Reach/Fall by Round

Each player is modeled with a draft range based on their ADP. This range accounts for realistic pick flexibility: "reach" refers to how many picks earlier than ADP a player might be selected, while "fall" represents how many picks later they might still be available.

These ranges expand in later rounds to reflect more volatility and draft chaos, while early-round assumptions remain tighter. The model applies different reach/fall limits by round, calibrated to approximate a 50% probability of player availability based on historical ADP variance data. This ensures default stack recommendations focus on combinations that are realistically accessible, not just theoretically possible.

Round	Max Reach (Before ADP)	Max Fall (After ADP)
1	+3	-1
10	+16	-7
18+	+37	-13

Note on Reach/Fall Ranges

Reach and fall ranges reference historical ADP variance data from Underdog Fantasy’s Best Ball Mania II, as analyzed by Hayden Winks in "Best Ball ADPs – Is It Okay To Reach On Players?" . These ranges are calibrated to reflect a 50th percentile probability of player availability to ensure realistic stack projections.

For example, if a player’s ADP is 70 in Round 7, you might have realistic access if your pick falls between ADP 50 and 105, depending on your draft slot and the reach/fall limits.

Cluster Analysis

The model groups players from the same team into ADP clusters when they fall within the same draft range. If a cluster contains more players than your slot has picks in that range, the model assumes you’ll get just one — and allocates the highest projected player from the group.

For example, if Team A has three players projected in the ADP range 68–74, but your draft slot only picks once in that range, only one will be counted toward your stack — even if technically all three are “within range.”

Why this matters: These constraints prevent overly optimistic stack recommendations when teammates land in overlapping draft windows. It ensures that default stack targets are built from combinations you can reasonably draft — and that comparisons across teams and draft slots remain fair and consistent.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What if my stack target gets sniped?

A: DraftStacker is built for this. When a stack option disappears, use the draft board to pivot quickly — it automatically shows your remaining options based on slot access and tier quality.

Q: Why can’t I stack a team that projects well?

A: That team may have high individual projections, but if your draft slot can’t realistically access enough of those players due to reach/fall limits or clustering, it won’t qualify as a viable 5-player stack for your slot.

Q: Why are some players greyed out?

A: They’re either outside your slot’s realistic draft range (based on ADP and reach/fall rules), or they’re in a cluster where only one player is realistically selectable.

Q: Can I plan multiple stacks in one draft?

A: Yes. While the tool highlights your most efficient single stack by default, the filters and board layout let you visualize and track multiple stacks during the draft.

Q: Are smaller stack options (3- or 4-player) available?

A: Not yet — but this feature is on the roadmap. When it launches, you’ll be able to toggle between 3-, 4-, and 5-player stack views with new efficiency logic and tier thresholds for each size.

Q: Can I trust the recommendations?

A: Stack targets are calculated from live ADP, projections, slot access modeling, and clustering logic — they aren’t just rankings, they’re optimized based on what your slot can actually build.

ADP and point projections are based on data from Underdog Fantasy. This site is not affiliated with or endorsed by Underdog.

All modeling, analysis, and data transformations presented on this site are proprietary to DraftStacker.